Relative changes of the Black Sea level and impact on abrasive shore processes

Abstract

Most of modern prognosis point to the catastrophic rise of the World Ocean level by the end of the 21^th century. In future a number of negative consequences are connected with it, including growth of shore abrasion rates: tantatively by a power of the value. As the Black Sea is a part of the World Ocean, negative consequences are foretold for its shores as well. As a result one must be ready for a change of schemes of planning, management and development of shores in nearest decades which is connected with immense expenditures and risk of damage to natural systems. To check the given prognoses data of long-term observation of the level, waves, rates of cliff abrasion and other phenomena on several hydrological and meteorological stations on the Black Sea shores, mainly in its Northern part within Ukraine were used. The connection between the average atmosphere temperature rise and level rise was found but these variables are not connected with the growth of wind and wave activity from the sea section of the horizon and with abrasion rates.